Mortgage Rate Predictions for 2027: What Forecasters Expect
Forecasters expect 30-year mortgage rates to stay above 7% through 2027. Fannie Mae’s October 2026 forecast puts the 30-year fixed at an average of 7.5% in 2027, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects rates to “remain above 7% through 2027.” For comparison, Freddie Mac’s weekly average was 7.24% for the week of October 29, 2026, down from 7.32% a week earlier but up from 6.17% a year ago.
Below are the forecasts side by side, the Federal Reserve’s own projections, what actually moves mortgage rates and what each forecast means for a monthly payment. Whatever the forecasts say, the rate you are offered depends on your loan and the lender, which is why LenderMatch lets you compare several offers at once.
Updated October 30, 2026, after the Fed’s October 28 decision and Freddie Mac’s October 29 survey. We update this page after every Fed meeting and each monthly Fannie Mae and MBA forecast.
Mortgage rate forecast for 2027
These are the published 30-year fixed-rate forecasts we could confirm, with the prior figure where the publisher gave one.
| Publisher | Forecast | Period | Published | Prior forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae (Economic and Strategic Research) | 7.5% | 2027 average; 7.4% in Q4 2026 | October 2026 (reported October 14, 2026) | September 2026: 6.7% for 2027, 6.8% for Q4 2026 |
| Mortgage Bankers Association | Above 7% | Through 2027; 7.3% in Q4 2026 | October 2026 (MBA NewsLink, October 13, 2026) | Not given in the release |
| National Association of Realtors | No number | Chief economist: 7% or higher likely to persist | October 15, 2026 | Not given |
Fannie Mae’s figures are as reported by CNBC on October 14, 2026. MBA’s figures are from MBA’s own NewsLink. Freddie Mac publishes a weekly survey of current rates, not a forecast.
The jump in Fannie Mae’s numbers is the story of the fall. In one month it raised its 2027 forecast from 6.7% to 7.5%. CNBC’s report pointed to high inflation, a bond sell-off and the Fed’s September rate increase, its first in more than three years. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, said on October 15, 2026: “I don’t see a major drop coming.”
Mortgage rate forecast for 2026 and 2027
For the rest of 2026, the forecasts sit close to today’s rate: 7.4% (Fannie Mae) and 7.3% (MBA) for the fourth-quarter average. Freddie Mac’s weekly average shows how quickly 2026 changed:
- January 8, 2026: 6.16%
- February 26, 2026: 5.98%, the low of the year so far
- October 8 and 15, 2026: 7.40%, the high
- October 29, 2026: 7.24%
The 15-year fixed averaged 6.60% the week of October 29, 2026. Our mortgage rates page updates every Thursday with the newest Freddie Mac numbers, and today’s refinance rates shows how refinance pricing compares.
What the Fed projects for 2027
The Federal Reserve does not forecast mortgage rates, but four times a year its policymakers publish where they expect the federal funds rate to be at the end of each year. The latest set came out September 16, 2026, the day the Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%. Each figure is the midpoint of the target range at year-end; the June 2026 projection is in parentheses.
| Year-end | Median | Central tendency | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.1% (3.8%) | 4.1% to 4.4% | 3.9% to 4.4% |
| 2027 | 4.1% (3.6%) | 3.6% to 4.4% | 3.1% to 4.4% |
| 2028 | 3.9% (3.4%) | 3.1% to 4.1% | 3.1% to 4.1% |
| Longer run | 3.2% (3.1%) | 3.0% to 3.6% | 2.9% to 3.9% |
Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026 (18 participants). The central tendency drops the three highest and three lowest projections.
Read plainly, the median expects the rate to end 2026 and 2027 at about the same level, a bit above the midpoint of today’s 3.75% to 4.00% range (3.875%), with cuts not starting until 2028. Between June and September, the 2027 median rose by half a point. The same projections see inflation (PCE) at 2.3% in 2027, unemployment at 4.1% and economic growth at 2.4%.
On October 28, 2026, the Fed held its range at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with both dissenters preferring another quarter-point increase. The MBA’s chief economist said in October that he expects two more quarter-point increases, one in December 2026 and one in the first quarter of 2027. The next meeting is December 8 and 9, 2026, with new projections. All the dates are in our Fed meeting schedule for 2027.
What moves mortgage rates
The 10-year Treasury yield. Mortgage rates track long-term bond yields more than the Fed’s overnight rate. Atlanta Fed researchers wrote in November 2025 that over the past 20 years mortgage rates have been more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield than to the federal funds rate. The 10-year yield was 4.98% on October 29, 2026, up from 4.02% on February 26, when mortgage rates hit their 2026 low. The MBA expects it to average 5.1% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and stay near 5% through 2027, which is a big reason its rate forecast stays above 7%.
The spread over Treasuries. Mortgage rates sit above the 10-year yield. A Boston Fed paper (May 19, 2026) describes a gap of roughly 2 percentage points and says it mostly reflects the price of the borrower’s option to prepay. Rate expectations, rate volatility and refinancing costs explained about 80% of the gap’s variation since 2006. On October 29, 2026, the gap was 2.26 points (7.24% minus 4.98%, our arithmetic).
Inflation. Higher inflation tends to push bond yields up; in October, CNBC reported that a hotter-than-expected inflation report did exactly that. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months ending September 2026, and 2.6% excluding food and energy (Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 14, 2026). The Fed’s October statement said simply: “Inflation remains elevated.”
The Fed. Fed decisions set short-term rates directly, and the prime rate moved the day after the September increase. The effect on mortgage rates is indirect, and they keep moving between meetings: from September 17 to October 8, 2026, with no Fed meeting in between, the 30-year average rose from 6.95% to 7.40%.
What the 2027 forecasts mean for your payment
Here is the monthly principal and interest on a $350,000, 30-year fixed loan at today’s average and at the forecast levels.
| Rate | Monthly payment | Total interest |
|---|---|---|
| 6.75% | $2,270 | $467,234 |
| 7.24% (Freddie Mac, Oct 29, 2026) | $2,385 | $508,688 |
| 7.50% (Fannie Mae 2027 forecast) | $2,447 | $531,010 |
Calculated by LenderMatch. Excludes taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance. The 6.75% row is an illustration, not a forecast.
A quarter-point change on this loan is worth about $60 a month. The difference between today’s average and the Fannie Mae forecast is $62 a month, or about $22,300 over the full term. Run your own numbers in the mortgage calculator.
How accurate are mortgage rate forecasts?
Treat them as a snapshot. Fannie Mae’s 2027 number moved 0.8 points in a single month, and the Fed’s 2027 median moved half a point between June and September. The weekly Freddie Mac average is the better guide to where rates are now, and a lender’s quote is the only number you can actually lock.
If you are deciding now
A forecast can’t tell you what your own rate will be. Your credit score, down payment or equity, loan type and the lender’s pricing all move it. Compare real quotes, and if you are thinking about refinancing, run the break-even math in when refinancing makes sense. Our guide to whether mortgage rates will go down in 2027 walks through waiting versus acting.
Frequently asked questions
What will mortgage rates be in 2027?
The two main industry forecasts put the 30-year fixed above 7% for all of 2027. Fannie Mae’s October 2026 forecast puts the 2027 average at 7.5%, and the Mortgage Bankers Association expects it to “remain above 7% through 2027.” Freddie Mac’s average was 7.24% the week of October 29, 2026.
Will mortgage rates go down in 2027?
Not by much, according to current forecasts. Neither Fannie Mae nor the MBA expects the 30-year to fall below 7% in 2027, and the median of the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 projections shows no rate cuts through the end of 2027. Forecasts change, so this page is updated after each Fed meeting and each monthly forecast. More detail is in will mortgage rates go down.
Will mortgage rates go back to 6%?
None of the forecasts we found shows it through 2027. Rates were near 6% recently: Freddie Mac’s 30-year average was 5.98% on February 26, 2026, and 6.17% a year before the October 29, 2026 survey. Getting back there would likely take a lower 10-year Treasury yield, which the MBA expects to stay near 5% through 2027.
Does the Fed set mortgage rates?
No. The Fed sets a target range for the federal funds rate, an overnight rate between banks. Thirty-year mortgage rates follow longer-term bond yields more closely, especially the 10-year Treasury, so they can move without a Fed decision and sometimes in the opposite direction.
How often are mortgage rate forecasts updated?
Fannie Mae and the MBA publish new forecasts about once a month, and the Fed publishes projections four times a year, in March, June, September and December. Freddie Mac publishes its weekly average every Thursday.
Compare refinance offers from several lenders →
Sources
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey: 30-year fixed 7.24% and 15-year fixed 6.60%, week of October 29, 2026 (prior week 7.32%, year ago 6.17%). 2026 weekly history via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED series MORTGAGE30US.
- Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections table, September 16, 2026, and FOMC statements of September 16 and October 28, 2026.
- Federal Reserve, H.15 Selected Interest Rates (released October 30, 2026): effective federal funds rate 3.88%, 10-year Treasury 4.98% (October 29, 2026); February 26, 2026 yield via FRED series DGS10.
- CNBC, “Fannie Mae sharply raises mortgage rate forecast for 2027” (October 14, 2026), reporting Fannie Mae’s October 2026 Housing Forecast. The Fannie Mae PDF returned an access error when we tried to open it.
- MBA NewsLink, “MBA Forecast: Mortgage Originations to Decrease 5% in 2027 as Mortgage Rates Remain Above 7%” (October 13, 2026).
- National Association of Realtors, REALTOR News, “Mortgage Rates Have Become the Housing Market’s Fall Nemesis” (October 15, 2026).
- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Economy Matters, “Not Joined at the Hip: The Relationship between the Fed Funds Rate and Mortgage Rates” (November 10, 2025).
- Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Paul S. Willen, “Why Mortgage Rates Exceed Treasury Yields,” Current Policy Perspectives (May 19, 2026).
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (released October 14, 2026).
Forecasts are the publishers’ own; payment examples are LenderMatch calculations, not offers. Last reviewed October 30, 2026.